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Neil Paine
The 2023-24 NHL offseason moves fast. Consider the following: The Florida Panthers had not yet even hoisted the Stanley Cup when the wheels of player movement were set in motion last month. Only recently has the leaguewide flurry of signings and trades started to slow down.
By now, though, just a few productive veterans — names such as Daniel Sprong, James van Riemsdyk and Kevin Shattenkirk — remain unsigned. So with most of this summer’s biggest dominoes having fallen, let’s do a little offseason accounting. Using last season’s goals above replacement (GAR) totals, we’ll be looking at the teams that picked up the most net value (from additions minus subtractions) via trades, free agent signings, retirements and other moves since the end of the 2023-24 regular season.
This won’t take into account rookies — so No. 1 draft pick Macklin Celebrini won’t have any previous GAR to contribute to the San Jose Sharks — but it should otherwise give a good sense for which teams boosted their talent base, and who will have to replace production from a year ago.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are a great case study in both areas, for example: They picked up Jake Guentzel from the Carolina Hurricanes in a trade, but they also said goodbye to captain and franchise icon Steven Stamkos. Between those and other moves, the Bolts came out pretty much exactly even on net GAR — ranking 16th out of 32 teams.
How do the other 31 teams grade out? Let’s unpack some of the teams at each end of the spectrum, and then reveal the full rankings:
Jump to:
Teams that added value | Teams that lost value
Full rankings for all 32 teams
Six teams that gained most value since last season
2023-24 GAR: 12.0 (31st) | Offense: minus-13.2 (32nd)
Defense: 18.6 (29th) | Goalies: 6.6 (23rd)
Top additions (GAR): F Teuvo Teravainen (12.3), G Laurent Brossoit (10.4), LW Tyler Bertuzzi (7.2), D TJ Brodie (5.4), F Ilya Mikheyev (3.6), C Craig Smith (3.3), D Alec Martinez (3.2)
Top losses (GAR): C Sam Lafferty* (3.6), Colin Blackwell (0.5)
Despite the play of Calder Trophy winner Connor Bedard, no team needed more help on offense last season than Chicago, which finished last in scoring at a sub-replacement level 2.17 goals per game. So the Blackhawks picked up Teravainen and Bertuzzi, both of whom were 20-plus goal scorers last season — and they also simply gained by subtraction, with a number of their most unproductive forwards from a year ago (Taylor Raddysh, MacKenzie Entwistle, Reese Johnson) going elsewhere.
A porous defense that allowed the league’s fifth-most shots per game should also benefit from the addition of the veteran Brodie, and Brossoit will make for a solid tandem in net with Petr Mrazek. The Blackhawks should be among the most improved teams in the NHL next season.
Net Off. GAR: plus-30.6 (1st) | Net Def. GAR: plus-15.5 (1st) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-10.4 (4th)
(*Chicago acquired the negotiating rights to Lafferty but was unable to re-sign him.)
2023-24 GAR: 141.0 (14th) | Offense: 74.8 (10th)
Defense: 48.7 (19th) | Goalies: 17.4 (11th)
Top additions (GAR): C Steven Stamkos (16.2) , D Brady Skjei (16.0), C Jonathan Marchessault (14.7)
Top losses (GAR): D Ryan McDonagh (7.6), RW Kiefer Sherwood (4.7), LW Jason Zucker (3.8)
The Predators were a pleasant surprise last season, bouncing back from missing the playoffs in 2022-23 (ending an eight-year postseason streak) to make their return, and push the Vancouver Canucks to six games before bowing out. Nashville did it relying mostly on top-end talent, with Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg having big seasons, and the goaltending was solid despite a drop-off from Juuse Saros. But the Preds needed more depth, and they got that in the form of Stamkos, Skjei and Marchessault.
The additions are a bit of a risk; a team that already ranked fifth oldest a year ago just built its offseason around three guys who’ll be on the wrong side of 30 next season. But if they continue to hold up, Nashville will be a much scarier team to deal with.
Net Off. GAR: plus-27.9 (2nd) | Net Def. GAR: plus-2.8 (14th) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-3.2 (8th)
2023-24 GAR: 87.0 (27th) | Offense: 24.8 (28th)
Defense: 49.9 (17th) | Goalies: 12.3 (16th)
Top additions (GAR): D Matt Roy (9.3), G Logan Thompson (9.3), D Jakob Chychrun (6.9), LW Andrew Mangiapane (5.7), LW Pierre-Luc Dubois (5.6)
Top losses (GAR): D Nick Jensen (1.7), RW Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1.3)
Although they made the playoffs — promptly getting swept by the Rangers in Round 1 — the Capitals, and their minus-0.45 goals-per-game differential, were not very good last season. Among their problems: Goalie Darcy Kuemper was among the league’s worst, putting pressure on journeyman Charlie Lindgren to pick up the slack, while longtime franchise pillars Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson showed their age.
In response, Washington snagged Thompson to pair with Lindgren, bolstered the defense with Roy and took fliers on three players (Mangiapane, Dubois, Chychrun) who have a history of much better seasons than what they showed in 2023-24. There’s upside if any of those players return to their earlier form.
Net Off. GAR: plus-11.5 (3rd) | Net Def. GAR: plus-9.0 (5th) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-11.0 (3rd)
2023-24 GAR: minus-23.0 (32nd) | Offense: minus-11.2 (31st)
Defense: minus-12.2 (32nd) | Goalies: 0.4 (29th)
Top additions (GAR): C Tyler Toffoli (11.2), D Jake Walman (5.0), C Alex Wennberg (2.0)
Top losses (GAR): D Jacob MacDonald (1.3)
San Jose was one of the worst teams in NHL history last season — the Sharks owned the 16th-lowest single-season simple rating system (SRS) score ever, for instance — so there was plenty of room for improvement this offseason.
Toffoli, who has scored 65 total goals over the past two seasons, will get the chance to build offensive chemistry with Celebrini right away (and vice versa), while the defense looks to be at least slightly less shaky in front of Mackenzie Blackwood. There’s a lot of work left to do in San Jose, but there’s nowhere to go but up.
Net Off. GAR: plus-10.9 (4th) | Net Def. GAR: plus-13.0 (3rd) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-2.2 (10th)
0:45
Macklin Celebrini’s NHL draft profile
Check out some of the highlights that have solidified Macklin Celebrini’s place as the projected top pick.
2023-24 GAR: 160.0 (11th) | Offense: 106.8 (2nd)
Defense: 49.3 (18th) | Goalies: 3.9 (25th)
Top additions (GAR): G Anthony Stolarz (11.1), D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10.0), D Chris Tanev (5.7), D Jani Hakanpaa (3.4)
Top losses (GAR): LW Tyler Bertuzzi (7.2), D TJ Brodie (5.4)
Some combination of defense and goaltending always seems to be among the Maple Leafs’ needs, and that was the case again after their latest playoff flameout.
Stolarz is a statistical upgrade over the departed Ilya Samsonov, who had a subpar .896 save percentage in the playoffs; he’ll split starts with Joseph Woll in net. Meanwhile, Ekman-Larsson, Tanev and Hakanpaa will bolster a Toronto defensive corps that struggled for contributions outside of Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe. The Leafs are the best team from 2023-24 on our most improved list.
Net Off. GAR: plus-1.1 (13th) | Net Def. GAR: plus-7.4 (6th) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-15.8 (2nd)
2023-24 GAR: 106.0 (22nd) | Offense: 72.8 (12th)
Defense: 33.4 (24th) | Goalies: minus-0.2 (30th)
Top additions (GAR): RW Stefan Noesen (7.7), G Jacob Markstrom (7.7), D Brenden Dillon (6.9), D Brett Pesce (5.7), LW Tomas Tatar (3.3), D Johnathan Kovacevic (3.2)
Top losses (GAR): G Kaapo Kahkonen (4.7), D John Marino (3.6), RW Alexander Holtz (3.6), D Brendan Smith (2.7)
Following one of the NHL’s more disappointing performances in 2023-24, the Devils had one of its most active offseasons. Along the way, New Jersey addressed its biggest shortcoming from a year ago by upgrading in goal to Markstrom, who should at least be better than Vítek Vaněček, if not potentially much better (Markstrom was a Vezina Trophy finalist a few years ago). And the Devils targeted defenders and solid two-way forwards to help a defense that had ranked among the league’s leakiest.
So much still depends on the health of Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Timo Meier, but the roster around them next season looks more sound.
Net Off. GAR: plus-3.7 (10th) | Net Def. GAR: plus-14.6 (2nd) | Net Goalie GAR: plus-3.3 (7th)
Seven teams that lost the most value since last season
2023-24 GAR: 143.0 (13th) | Offense: 71.8 (13th)
Defense: 53.4 (14th) | Goalies: 17.8 (10th)
Top additions (GAR): RW Alexander Holtz (3.6), RW Victor Olofsson (1.7)
Top losses (GAR): C Jonathan Marchessault (14.7), G Logan Thompson (9.3), RW Anthony Mantha (8.9), C Chandler Stephenson (6.5), C Michael Amadio (4.1), D Alec Martinez (3.2)
Roster gymnastics have been a hallmark of the Golden Knights from the very beginning of their NHL existence — pulling off the best expansion effort in pro sports history — through their Cup win in 2023 and the various salary-cap maneuvers that helped make it all possible.
But the Knights might be facing their toughest test yet, after an offseason that hollowed out more than a third of the team’s production from a year ago. The cupboard is far from bare, but a team that was already following a different construction plan than the typical contender will need to rally around its holdovers and find new sources of production, especially on offense.
Net Off. GAR: minus-23.0 (32nd) | Net Def. GAR: minus-12.2 (29th) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-14.9 (30th)
2023-24 GAR: 190.0 (1st) | Offense: 73.8 (11th)
Defense: 88.6 (2nd) | Goalies: 27.6 (4th)
Top additions (GAR): D Nate Schmidt (3.4), C Jesper Boqvist (2.5)
Top losses (GAR): G Anthony Stolarz (11.1), RW Vladimir Tarasenko (11.0), D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10.0), D Brandon Montour (8.9)
It’s no coincidence that the past two champions rank Nos. 1-2 in value lost here; the NHL’s salary cap can be as unforgiving as any competitive-balance mechanism in sports. The Panthers will at least emerge from the summer with their championship core almost entirely intact, the losses mainly affecting their depth.
Still, Florida will go into next season with roster holes to be filled by less experienced and talented players, which is one of the reasons we’ve seen only two repeat champs in the cap era (since 2005-06).
Net Off. GAR: minus-18.6 (31st) | Net Def. GAR: minus-13.0 (30th) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-10.5 (29th)
3. Winnipeg Jets (minus-38.0 net GAR added)
2023-24 GAR: 184.0 (4th) | Offense: 67.8 (15th)
Defense: 77.8 (4th) | Goalies: 38.4 (1st)
Top additions (GAR): G Kaapo Kahkonen (4.7), D Haydn Fleury (1.7)
Top losses (GAR): C Tyler Toffoli (11.2), G Laurent Brossoit (10.4), C Sean Monahan (9.1), D Brenden Dillon (6.9), D Nate Schmidt (3.4)
Although their season ended in a disappointing five-game defeat against the Colorado Avalanche, the Jets spent most of 2023-24 as a pleasant surprise, recapturing some of the potential they had seemingly squandered after being upset in the 2018 Western Conference finals.
But while Winnipeg will always have a chance as long as Connor Hellebuyck is between the pipes, its path to another 50-win season got tougher by losing a handful of important depth players — including Monahan and Toffoli, who were short-term acquisitions at the trade deadline. The losses will be felt particularly on offense for a team that struggled to score at times last season.
Net Off. GAR: minus-18.4 (30th) | Net Def. GAR: minus-11.0 (26th) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-8.7 (27th)
2023-24 GAR: 189.0 (2nd) | Offense: 85.8 (8th)
Defense: 95.5 (1st) | Goalies: 7.7 (22nd)
Top additions (GAR): D Shayne Gostisbehere (10.1), D Sean Walker (9.9), C Jack Roslovic (2.5)
Top losses (GAR): C Jake Guentzel (16.8), D Brady Skjei (16.0), F Teuvo Teravainen (12.3), RW Stefan Noesen (7.7), D Brett Pesce (5.7)
The Hurricanes are built around the performance of their skaters, especially when it comes to dominating possession at 5-on-5. But Carolina lost a handful of names with a track record of driving that elite performance — from the deadline pickup Guentzel to other familiar players who had been with the club for many more years.
With 36.0 net GAR departing on either offense or defense (i.e., excluding goaltending) this offseason, no team lost more value from skaters than the Canes.
Net Off. GAR: minus-17.0 (29th) | Net Def. GAR: minus-19.1 (32nd) | Net Goalie GAR: 0.0 (13th)
2023-24 GAR: 167.0 (9th) | Offense: 62.8 (16th)
Defense: 83.2 (3rd) | Goalies: 21.0 (7th)
Top additions (GAR): LW Warren Foegele (7.6), D Caleb Jones (1.1)
Top losses (GAR): G Cam Talbot (15.7), D Matt Roy (9.3), LW Pierre-Luc Dubois (5.6), LW Viktor Arvidsson (3.2), C Blake Lizotte (2.4)
Like Winnipeg, the Kings were another team that bounced back from a seeming multiyear decline to improve again in recent seasons — not that it helped them in the playoffs against the Oilers, who eliminated them for a third consecutive season. Now Los Angeles will need to reload again, after an offseason exodus that included Talbot, the primary starter in net, and Roy, the team’s leading defenseman by GAR.
Some of these losses might be classified as addition by subtraction; Dubois’ tenure with L.A. was a disaster, for instance. But the Kings are now hoping their depth doesn’t suffer too much, while new netminder Darcy Kuemper rediscovers his Cup-winning form after a rough 2023-24 season.
Net Off. GAR: minus-6.6 (26th) | Net Def. GAR: minus-11.9 (28th) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-17.5 (31st)
6. Dallas Stars (minus-35.4 net GAR added)
2023-24 GAR: 185.0 (3rd) | Offense: 102.8 (3rd)
Defense: 70.7 (6th) | Goalies: 11.4 (18th)
Top additions (GAR): D Brendan Smith (2.7), C Colin Blackwell (0.5)
Top losses (GAR): C Joe Pavelski (13.7), D Chris Tanev (5.7), D Ryan Suter (4.6), D Jani Hakanpaa (3.4), C Craig Smith (3.3), G Scott Wedgewood (1.7)
The Stars find themselves in a similar spot this offseason compared to several of the other teams on our “least improved” list. Just like Carolina, for instance, Dallas relies a lot on its skaters driving play, even if goalie Jake Oettinger can also be counted on to help matters. (He has a history of outperforming his fine-but-not-amazing output from 2023-24.)
So Dallas will need to piece back together the depth that was lost over the summer and, despite the ensemble nature of the team’s offensive cast (eight different Stars scored at least 20 goals), figure out how to replace the scoring and veteran expertise of Pavelski, who essentially — if not officially — declared he was retiring at the end of last season.
Net Off. GAR: minus-13.2 (27th) | Net Def. GAR: minus-18.0 (31st) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-4.2 (26th)
7. Boston Bruins (minus-29.4 net GAR added)
2023-24 GAR: 165.0 (10th) | Offense: 71.8 (13th)
Defense: 63.5 (11th) | Goalies: 29.7 (2nd)
Top additions (GAR): D Nikita Zadorov (4.6), C Elias Lindholm (4.0)
Top losses (GAR): G Linus Ullmark (13.7), C Danton Heinen (7.0), LW Jake DeBrusk (6.2), D Matt Grzelcyk (3.3), C Jesper Boqvist (2.5)
Boston is used to being on lists like these in recent seasons; the Bruins already weathered the losses of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí last offseason (among other defections from the record-breaking 2022-23 version of the team).
This summer saw Boston say goodbye to even more productive players — chief among them, 2023 Vezina winner Ullmark, who was traded to the Ottawa Senators in June. The effect of Ullmark’s departure will be dampened by the fact that Jeremy Swayman had already claimed the starting job with a stellar 2023-24 performance, including the postseason, but the Bruins’ two-headed goalie rotation is no more. To make up for the other losses, Boston needs both Zadorov and especially Lindholm to reclaim their levels of performance from a few years ago.
Net Off. GAR: minus-2.4 (21st) | Net Def. GAR: minus-8.8 (25th) | Net Goalie GAR: minus-18.1 (32nd)