Starmer unlikely to be ruffled by Trump – but he must keep his party in line

From shattering the record for most executive orders signed on a first day in office, a bishop imploring him to have mercy on immigrants and LGBTQ+ people, Melania’s hat and Mark Zuckerberg’s wandering eye – the first few days of Trump 2.0 has been not just the talk of the town in Washington DC, but in Westminster too.

President Trump himself said as he took the mantle of 47th president of the United States that he wants to make his second term “the most consequential in US history”.

What is becoming even more clear as campaigning gives way to governing is that Trump 2.0 could prove vastly consequential for us too.

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Talk to those around Whitehall and in the government, and there is a quiet acknowledgement of the ill-wind that is blowing from America towards liberals like Sir Keir Starmer as President Trump pulls out of climate accords, ramps up the war on purging government workers in diversity, equity and inclusion roles, and begins to roll out an aggressive immigration crackdown from mass deportations to a broad ban on asylum.

But what you will see in the coming weeks, is a pointed effort on the part of the government to neither comment nor engage on US domestic issues. This is likely to infuriate liberals and progressives both in the Labour Party and voter base, but when it comes to Trump 2.0 pragmatism reigns.

This is partly, say those in government, because of the difference in the win this time around.

Trump not only won the Electoral College, he won the popular vote – the first time a Republican candidate has won both in 20 years – and control of the House of Representatives and Senate. That gives a legitimacy and power that he didn’t have last time around and that momentum looks set to stay, at least until the mid-terms in two years’ time.

It is also because the Labour government, and wider Europe, needs Trump onside.

On the big issues facing the government, the US looms large, be it on economic growth – tariffs and trade deals – or security – Ukraine and the Middle East.

Whether you love or loathe Donald Trump, the decisions he takes on how to handle Israel, Gaza and Iran or bring about peace in Ukraine matters to us, and that means pragmatism must reign and punches pulled when it comes to the deep ideological divisions that are so obvious between Donald Trump’s politics and that of Keir Starmer.

We are entering more turbulent times and one very senior political figure admits it is going to be “rocky”.

They say this is because we find ourselves in a period where the organising principle for western foreign policy – the rules-based international order – is in quick retreat, as the US and Europe struggle to contain territorial and political ambitions of authoritarian countries like Russia and China.

Tricky terrain to navigate, the four priorities Starmer will want to try to land with President Trump when he gets an audience in the coming weeks are – Ukraine, the Middle East, tariffs and trade.

On the first, the contours of a plan are being discussed but the challenge is to get Putin to the negotiating table.

Russia, aware that President Trump is unwilling to keep pouring military aid into Ukraine, will want to carry on for as long as possible.

The task for allies is to persuade President Trump to go in hard on Putin so he is forced to the table in a position of discomfort.

We saw some of this from President Trump this week as he warned Putin of punishing sanctions on Russia should Moscow refuse to negotiate.

But there will be demands for Ukraine too, not least an expectation from President Trump that in return for US military support, President Zelenskyy must send younger Ukrainian men to the battlefield and lower the conscription age from 25 to perhaps as young as 18.

This will be incredibly difficult for President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people who have already sacrificed so much in a war they did not ask for and didn’t want.

As part of any ceasefire deal, expect the UK to be involved in a European peacekeeping force.

Expect too for Trump to ramp up pressure on NATO countries to boost defence spending from 2% of GDP to 3% or more (Trump called for the defence spend baseline of NATO members to be 5% in recent weeks).

Needless to say, the US’s handling of the Ukraine war and our role in that will be critical to not just our foreign policy, but national conversation in the coming months.

When it comes to the Middle East, the situation is trickier still.

I’m told there is some concern with the Foreign Office that Israel could make the case to Trump that the depletion of Iran’s proxies – Hezbollah and Hamas – make this a moment to target Iran.

There is nervousness that Trump, who has long made his acute dislike of Iran clear (last time around he abandoned the Obama nuclear deal with Tehran), buys into that and escalates a wider conflict in the region.

Even the risk of the US green-lighting a direct attack from Israel on Iran will only serve to accelerate Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Where Starmer is hoping to make some progress is on trade.

President Trump, a big Brexit and Boris Johnson backer, talked up a US-UK trade deal in his first term, only for President Biden to put it on the backburner.

Now, the UK government is hoping there will be some sectoral deals in which our two countries can improve trading relations in return for the UK offering President Trump perhaps assurances around his security concerns regarding China (you might remember back in 2020, pressure from the US prompted the the government to U-turn on allowing Huawei to have a role in its new generation of 5G networks).

How this plays out, even as the Labour government looks to build trading ties with Beijing, will be something to watch.

One obvious question will be – can the UK benefit from renewed UK-China trade ties without annoying Trump?

The final big issue for the UK is tariffs, but for now it doesn’t look like Trump is taking aim at the UK.

Instead, he has this week announced he’s considering imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese-made imports as soon as 1 February.

Starmer needs it to stay that way, given his plan for “national renewal” hinges on economic growth – which is looking precarious even without the prospect of tariffs on exports to the US.

Analysts had warned that a blanket 10% tariff could cost British industry $3bn (£2.5bn) a year, with cars, aerospace, pharmaceuticals and machinery among the sectors to be hardest hit.

One area where the government is more quietly confident is on the matter of its pick for ambassador, Lord Mandelson.

While rumours have been flying around that the architect of New Labour and former EU trade commissioner might get vetoed by President Trump, sources in government expect him to be appointed, and believe his nous as a political operator, coupled with his expertise in trade negotiations, make him a good choice.

But the bigger question is whether he can become a Trump whisperer in replacing current ambassador, Karen Pierce, who is well-regarded and liked by the Trump team.

How to handle Trump will undoubtedly be a test for Starmer, not just in his direct dealing but in the ripple effects of the Trump White House on British politics and his own supporters.

What goes in his favour is that he deals in facts not emotions, so is unlikely to be ruffled with whatever Trump and his allies throw at him.

His bigger challenge will perhaps be keeping the rest of his party in line when he wants pragmatism rather than principle to rule the special relationship.