UK

Tories heading for worst-ever defeat while Labour on track for 256 majority, poll finds

Labour is on course for a 256-seat majority at the general election while the Tories are heading for their worst-ever defeat, according to a new poll.

In its first MRP model of the 2024 campaign, Ipsos estimated Sir Keir Starmer’s party could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115.

If correct, that would hand Labour a historic majority of 256 – while plunging the number of Tory MPs to record lows with senior figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats.

While Labour has consistently enjoyed a 20-point lead in the polls, the Ipsos survey is the highest projection yet of what their majority could look like.

The poll also predicts the Lib Dems could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, three for the Green Party and three for Reform UK.

According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win in Clacton while former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, standing as an independent, is predicted to lose to his old party in Islington North.

The poll is likely to cement fears within the Conservative party of an extinction-level event.

More on General Election 2024

Despite promises of further tax cuts in his manifesto, Rishi Sunak has failed to shift the dial in a campaign marred by political gaffes – notably his early exit from a D-day event.

In recent days, senior figures have taken to warning voters about the risk of a Labour supermajority in a bid to convince undecided voters to stick with them.

The projection predicts a huge majority for Labour even when factoring in more than 100 seats which are “too close to call”.

The model finds 117 seats are on a knife edge as they have a winning margin of less than five percentage points.

This underlines the extent to which the number of undecided voters could change the outcome for the Tories.

Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.

“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.”

The poll used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between 7-12 June.

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